The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for June 2023 on Friday, July 7th. The monthly change in employment given by the CES and the unemployment rate from the CPS are seen as the standard gauges for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market.
Employment in the U.S. rose by 209,000 jobs. The job results were below the Geographic Solutions, Inc. forecast of 248,000, but was virtually tied with the Wall Street Journal estimate of 240,000. Geographic Solutions, Inc. derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job applications, job severances, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. The Geographic Solutions, Inc. had anticipated an uptick to 3.8% while the WSJ estimated it would decline to 3.6%. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Job creation was strongest in the Education & Health Services (73,000) and Government (60,000) sectors. Other sectors were flat or down. However, Construction did add 23,000 jobs.
Leisure & Hospitality and Government are the only major sectors to remain below their pre-pandemic employment levels.
Labor force participation maintained its 62.6% rate from the previous three months. The more expansive U-6 unemployment rate counts discouraged workers who are no longer actively seeking work (and therefore no longer in the labor force) and those that have settled for part-time employment but desire a full-time job. This measure of unemployment increased to 6.9%.
The June employment report revealed that payroll jobs continue to grow at a brisk pace, despite the fears of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve tackles inflation. These results are in line with expectations, and there is not a lot to draw on for what we might see in the months ahead. Job openings still far outnumber the unemployed, so that is somewhat promising for future job growth.