The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for October 2022 on Friday, October 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Geographic Solutions’ data is pointing to another month of solid job gains for October. As seen in the chart below, jobs are predicted to increase in October by 205,000. Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast from internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, job applications, job severances, and applications for unemployment benefits filed on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). Additionally, an indicator combining the interest rate on two-year treasury bills and the consumer price index were inserted to account for inflationary effects on the labor market.
Portrayed in the chart below is the 3.5% unemployment rate that Geographic Solutions forecasts for October, unmoved from its rate in September. The unemployment rate forecast uses internal data on the number of job openings, job searchers, unemployment applications, and job severances on Geographic Solutions state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.