Geographic Solutions derives its employment forecast and unemployment rate forecast from internal data on the number of job openings/searchers/applications and unemployment applications filed on Geographic Solutions' state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).
Geographic Solutions, Inc. has produced the following forecasts for the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. These are the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly surveys that measure labor market trends, The Current Employment Statistics (CES; also known as "the payroll" or "the establishment" survey) and The Current Population Survey (CPS; also known as "the household survey").
GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS: Jobs will increase in January by 255,000 in keeping with the strengthening trend seen since October last year.
In Comparison:
Job Creation averaged 225,000 per month in 2023. Strong consumer activity is expected to continue in the early part of this year and contributed to the higher estimate for January employment.
The Chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual employment result.
Geographic Solutions' employment forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.
GEOGRAPHIC SOLUTIONS PREDICTS:
The unemployment rate will level out at 3.8% for January, just above its December rate of 3.7%.
To Be Noted:
Last month the labor force participation rate had its largest one-month drop in almost 3 years, preventing a rise in the unemployment rate. That is unlikely to be repeated in January.
This chart shows shaded ranges that represent 80% and 90% probabilities of the actual unemployment rate result.
Geographic Solutions' unemployment rate forecast is represented by the horizontal blue line to the right.
On Friday, February 2nd, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release their two monthly surveys,
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and The Current Population Survey (CPS).
After the release of the report, Geographic Solutions will post a full analysis of the results.