The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for March 2021 on Friday, April 2nd. Geographic Solutions, Inc. (GSI), has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate.
Job growth picked up in February (+379,000) and signaled the labor market recovery is gaining steam after moving into a lull at the end of 2020. Employment should further accelerate in the coming months as vaccines are distributed to large parts of the population. The crucial matters for forecasters to balance is the effect of reopening along with the delays and disruptions in supply chains seen over the last couple of months. This dynamic will probably result in explosive job growth in the services sector but more subdued job increases in the goods sector.
GSI derives its employment forecast from internal data on job severances and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on GSI state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL). As seen in the chart below, we predict job growth in March of 462,000.
Portrayed in the table below is the 6.3% unemployment rate that GSI forecasts for March, a slight uptick from 6.2% in February. The unemployment rate forecast used internal data on job openings, job severances, job searchers, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on GSI state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the USDOL.
After the release of the report, GSI will post a full analysis of the results.